Margins are Democrats minus Republicans. The mean is only the rows on that card. A single poll is shown underneath and is not folded into the mean. Enter a count when you have one.
Republican-held
Kansas Senate
Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R)
The averages on this card do not agree on a leader. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in more than 90 years.
Mean of the rows below
D+0.7
They disagree on the leader. The rows span 1.7 points.
R+2TieD+2
Scale runs from R+2 to D+2.
Dots are averages.
270toWin
Marshall 46.0 · Hamilton 45.8
R+0.2
11 Oct
Decision Desk HQ
Hamilton 46.5 · Marshall 45.5
D+1.0
11 Oct
FiftyPlusOne
Hamilton 46.5 · Marshall 45.0
D+1.5
11 Oct
RealClearPolitics
Hamilton 45.8 · Marshall 45.8
Tie
11 Oct
Silver Bulletin
Hamilton 46.5 · Marshall 45.1
D+1.4
10 Oct
Not in the mean. InsiderAdvantage, 9–10 Oct, 1,200 likely voters: Hamilton 48, Marshall 47.
Your call
No call yet. The side is what gets scored.
Polling table on the English Wikipedia page for the 2026 Kansas Senate election, retrieved 12 Oct 2026.
Republican-held
Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Only one public average is on this desk for Alaska, so there is no aggregator spread to score until more are added.
Mean of the rows below
D+0.6
One average only.
R+2TieD+2
Scale runs from R+2 to D+2.
Dots are averages.
Call the Map
Democratic polling average
D+0.6
10 Oct
Not in the mean. Silver Bulletin, 10 Oct: an Alaska Survey Research poll had Peltola ahead by 2 in both the first round and the final ranked-choice round.
Your call
No call yet. The side is what gets scored.
Call the Map senate polling averages, 10 Oct 2026, and Silver Bulletin’s 10 Oct note on the Alaska Survey Research poll.
Republican-held
Texas Senate
James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
A tight cluster of averages, all with Talarico modestly ahead.
Mean of the rows below
D+3.2
Same leader. The rows span 0.3 points.
R+4TieD+4
Scale runs from R+4 to D+4.
Dots are averages.
Decision Desk HQ
Talarico 47.8 · Paxton 44.5
D+3.3
10 Oct
FiftyPlusOne
Talarico 48.4 · Paxton 45.1
D+3.3
10 Oct
RealClearPolitics
Talarico 48.2 · Paxton 45.2
D+3.0
10 Oct
Texas Tribune
Talarico 48.2 · Paxton 45.0
D+3.2
8 Oct
Silver Bulletin
Talarico 48.8 · Paxton 45.5
D+3.3
8 Oct
Not in the mean. Trafalgar Group, 6–8 Oct, 1,086 likely voters: Talarico 47, Paxton 44.
Your call
No call yet. The side is what gets scored.
Polling table on the English Wikipedia page for the 2026 Texas Senate election, retrieved 12 Oct 2026. One incomplete aggregator row on that table is omitted.
Open seat
Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
Every average here has El-Sayed ahead, inside a band of about a point.
Mean of the rows below
D+3.5
Same leader. The rows span 0.9 points.
R+4TieD+4
Scale runs from R+4 to D+4.
Dots are averages.
270toWin
El-Sayed 47.8 · Rogers 43.8
D+4.0
5 Oct
Decision Desk HQ
El-Sayed 49.3 · Rogers 45.9
D+3.4
12 Oct
FiftyPlusOne
El-Sayed 48.2 · Rogers 44.7
D+3.5
11 Oct
RealClearPolitics
El-Sayed 48.1 · Rogers 45.0
D+3.1
12 Oct
Silver Bulletin
El-Sayed 48.5 · Rogers 45.0
D+3.5
10 Oct
Not in the mean. InsiderAdvantage, 9–10 Oct, 1,200 likely voters: El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46.
Your call
No call yet. The side is what gets scored.
Polling table on the English Wikipedia page for the 2026 Michigan Senate election, retrieved 12 Oct 2026.
Democratic-held
Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R)
The widest lead on this desk, and the stalest: every average here was updated 4 Oct.
Mean of the rows below
D+8.4
Same leader. The rows span 1.4 points.
R+10TieD+10
Scale runs from R+10 to D+10.
Dots are averages.
270toWin
Ossoff 51.0 · Collins 43.4
D+7.6
4 Oct
Decision Desk HQ
Ossoff 52.5 · Collins 43.5
D+9.0
4 Oct
FiftyPlusOne
Ossoff 52.1 · Collins 43.1
D+9.0
4 Oct
RealClearPolitics
Ossoff 51.1 · Collins 43.1
D+8.0
4 Oct
Silver Bulletin
Ossoff 51.0 · Collins 42.7
D+8.3
4 Oct
Your call
No call yet. The side is what gets scored.
Polling table on the English Wikipedia page for the 2026 Georgia Senate election, retrieved 12 Oct 2026.
National
Generic congressional ballot
Democrats vs. Republicans for Congress
This is the national House popular vote, not a seat count. A lead this large can still produce a close House if it is concentrated in safe seats.
Mean of the rows below
D+8.4
Same leader. The rows span 1.2 points.
R+10TieD+10
Scale runs from R+10 to D+10.
Dots are averages.
Decision Desk HQ
Democrats 48.8 · Republicans 40.3
D+8.5
9 Oct
FiftyPlusOne
Democrats 51.1 · Republicans 43.3
D+7.8
9 Oct
NBC News
Democrats 52.0 · Republicans 43.0
D+9.0
9 Oct
RealClearPolitics
Democrats 49.8 · Republicans 41.9
D+7.9
9 Oct
Silver Bulletin
Democrats 49.8 · Republicans 40.8
D+9.0
9 Oct
Your call
No call yet. The side is what gets scored.
Generic-ballot aggregate on the English Wikipedia page for the 2026 Senate elections, retrieved 12 Oct 2026. A separate tracker, fredcornell, had Democrats +7.5 (48.6 to 41.1) on 11 Oct and is not in this mean.