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Missed CallPolls, forecasts, and the count

Election Day is 3 November 2026

The count is still ahead.

Every number here is a claim about 3 November. After the count, it can be scored. Enter results in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere — and the misses calculate themselves.

Polls and forecasts are a 12 October 2026 snapshot, not a live feed.

Senate now

53–47

Republicans, with two independents in the Democratic caucus. Democrats need four more seats for a majority.

Generic ballot

D+8.4

Mean of five aggregators, 9 Oct. That is the House popular vote, not seats.

House models

91–97%

Chance of a Democratic majority, from markets at the low end to fredcornell at the high end.

Senate

Who already has the seats

Ratings below assign seats they consider safe or leaning and leave toss-ups blank. A Democratic majority is the line at 51. FPO and ST are the abbreviations on the Wikipedia table this comes from.

51
  • FPO52 D · 2 toss-up · 46 R
  • Silver Bulletin52 D · 2 toss-up · 46 R
  • ST52 D · 1 toss-up · 47 R
  • The Economist50 D · 4 toss-up · 46 R
  • Decision Desk HQ49 D · 4 toss-up · 47 R
  • Sabato’s Crystal Ball49 D · 4 toss-up · 47 R
  • Cook Political Report47 D · 7 toss-up · 46 R
  • Fox News47 D · 6 toss-up · 47 R
  • Inside Elections47 D · 4 toss-up · 49 R
  • RealClearPolitics46 D · 9 toss-up · 45 R

English Wikipedia, 2026 Senate elections, predictions summary, retrieved 12 Oct 2026. Totals include seats not on the ballot.

Your call

No call yet. The side is what gets scored.

The count

Count independents who caucus with Democrats as Democratic seats. A partial count is fine — scoring waits until one side has clinched.

Senate odds

Chance Democrats get to 51

Separate from the ratings above. A market price is what traders will pay, not a poll of voters.

  • Vote-Scope65% D

    12 Oct · point estimate 51 D · The 51 Democratic seats include one independent.

  • fredcornell61% D

    11 Oct · Chance Democrats reach 51 seats.

  • Silver Bulletin74.8% D

    8 Oct · As reported by Newsweek from the 8 Oct model run.

  • Polymarket63.5% D

    12 Oct · Market price for Democratic control, not a poll.

  • Kalshi61.8% D

    12 Oct · Market price for Democratic control, not a poll.

House

Chance of a Democratic majority

Models and markets, not a single number. The bar is the chance they give Democrats. Now: Republicans 218, Democrats 214, one independent, two vacancies.

  • Vote-Scope96% D

    12 Oct · point estimate 235 D · Published Democratic range: 223 to 265 seats.

  • fredcornell97% D

    11 Oct

  • Silver Bulletin93.1% D

    8 Oct · As reported by Newsweek from the 8 Oct model run.

  • Polymarket91% D

    12 Oct · Market price for a Democratic majority.

  • Kalshi90% D

    12 Oct · Market price cited in the VotePredictor roundup.

Silver Bulletin, via Newsweek, 8 Oct: a 74.5% chance Democrats take both chambers, and a 6.7% chance Republicans keep both.

Your call

No call yet. The side is what gets scored.

The count

218 Democratic seats is a majority. You can enter a partial count; this waits to score until one side has clinched.

Governors

26 D · 24 R

Vote-Scope, 12 Oct. All 50 governorships. Thirty-six are on the November ballot. One forecast only — there is no spread to compare until you enter the count.

The count

All 50 states, including the ones not on the ballot. The forecast is scored when the two parties sum to 50.

If the miss repeats

Not a forecast. A rehearsal.

This subtracts a past cycle’s average Democratic overstatement — AAPOR, final two weeks, all offices — from today’s mean. It shows which races would change hands if that miss came back. It does not say that it will.

  • Kansas SenateD+0.7
  • Alaska SenateD+0.6
  • Texas SenateD+3.2
  • Michigan SenateD+3.5
  • Georgia SenateD+8.4
  • Generic congressional ballotD+8.4

How to use this on election night

  1. 1. Lock a call now, before the count, on Your call or on any race.
  2. 2. As races are called, enter the margin. A partial Congress count is allowed.
  3. 3. Scoring starts when a leader is known. Seat errors wait until the chamber is full.
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