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How far the last cycles missed
The same three columns — poll, claim, count — already have answers here. Read 2026 against this, not against a vibe.
Were the polls too Democratic?
AAPOR average signed error on the two-party margin, final two weeks, all offices. Above the line, polls were too Democratic. Absolute error is the size of the miss either way; it is shown for the three presidential cycles in the same report.
Source: AAPOR task force on 2024 pre-election polling. 2018 overstated Democrats by 0.1. 2022 overstated Republicans by 0.6. Absolute error was 5.2 in 2016, 5.3 in 2020, and 3.3 in 2024.
Presidential polls, national and state
Average absolute error in points. State polls, not the national popular vote, are why 2016 is remembered as a miss.
CycleNationalState
- 20162.25.1
- 20204.55.1
- 20242.63.0
2024
Trump won the popular vote and the Electoral College. Republicans took the Senate 53–47 and held the House 220–215.
Final-two-week polls were the most accurate presidential cycle of the Trump era, and they were still too Democratic. Republicans gained Senate seats in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia; Democrats gained Arizona.
Presidential popular vote
The average named the wrong leader.
American Presidency Project, RealClearPolitics final average: Harris 48.7 / Trump 48.6. Result on that table: Harris 48.4 / Trump 49.9.
2022
Republicans took the House 222–213. Democrats held a 51–49 Senate caucus.
The result was a Republican House, not the wave many pre-election narratives described. Across offices, the polling miss was small and favored Republicans.
No single final average is paired here. The signed error for the cycle is on the chart.
2020
Biden won the presidency. Democrats won the national House vote by much less than the generic ballot implied.
AAPOR called the national presidential polls the worst in 40 years on absolute error, about 4.5 points, even though they named the winner. One published final average (below) landed much closer than the average poll did. Both facts belong on the desk.
House generic ballot
The average named the leader.
New York Magazine, citing the final RealClearPolitics generic ballot and the House popular vote.
Presidential popular vote
The average named the leader.
American Presidency Project, RealClearPolitics final average: Biden 51.4 / Trump 46.9 against a result of 51.3 / 46.9. This one average was far tighter than AAPOR’s 4.5-point average absolute error across national polls.
2018
Democrats took the House. Republicans held the Senate and finished at 53–47.
The generic ballot did its job. The final RealClearPolitics average was a point more Republican than the House popular vote.
House generic ballot
The average named the leader.
New York Magazine, citing the final RealClearPolitics generic ballot (D+7.3) and a Democratic House popular-vote win of 8.4 points.
2016
Clinton won the popular vote. Trump won the Electoral College.
National polls were a modest miss. State polls were the story: AAPOR put their average absolute error at 5.1 points, against 2.2 nationally, and they were too Democratic.
Presidential popular vote
The average named the leader.
American Presidency Project, RealClearPolitics final average: Clinton 46.8 / Trump 43.6. Result: Clinton 48.2 / Trump 46.2.